Nuclear Winter Model Made by N.Moiseev

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In a world where thousands of nuclear weapons exist and more countries are trying to acquire them, where suicide terrorist strikes come without warning and thousands die each day from poverty caused by the way the international system operates, we need to know about and understand international relations. This is what makes international relations an interesting and a very important subject to study. The field of international relations is more than a list of facts and theories about international cooperation and conflict; it is a way of understanding world affairs.
There are different methods of researching international relations. All of them are unique, because we study the relations between nations. One of the most popular method international relations research is modeling. In my opinion, this method has many advantages which help us to understand and to study international relations. When we make a model, we can predict the future situation in relations between different states, we can try to prevent a war, we can show nations with conflicting interests how to survive in a modern world. N. N.
Moiseev is a prominent Russian scientist in the field of environmental protection as well an education. He developed the model of Nuclear Winter, which forced nuclear States to stop nuclear tests and the use of nuclear weapons in order to save the biosphere. He was a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and his aim was to protect future generations from nuclear war, which will lead to the death of all people in the world. Nikita Nikolaevich Moiseev (23 August 1917 – 29 February 2000) Academician Nikita N. Moiseev – an outstanding scientist, known for his fundamental work in the field of applied mathematics.
His works are devoted to the mechanics and fluid dynamics, numerical methods in optimal control theory, the theory of hierarchical systems, simulation, design automation, interdisciplinary studies of environmental problems. Nikita N. Moiseev was born August 23, 1917 in Moscow in a family of Russian intellectuals. His father – Nikolai S. Moiseyev, assistant professor at Moscow University, was arrested and died in Butyrskaya in the early 30’s. Mother – the adopted daughter of Nikolai Karlovich von Meck (shot in 1929), whose mother has provided for its time financial support to the great Russian composer PI Tchaikovsky.
Because of the origin of the path of Moiseev in science was not easy. Although he passed the entrance exams, MSU did not accept him because of noble origin, and data of the repressed father. After passing some exams externally, Moiseyev graduated yet Faculty of Mechanics, Moscow State University in 1941. In the same year he was drafted into the army and sent to study at the Air Force Academy. NE Zhukovsky. At the end of which in 1942 received an engineering degree, Moiseev was sent to the Volkhov front senior technician on aircraft maintenance.
In the air units he served until 1948, when he was demobilized with the rank of captain. Since 1948 Nikita Nikolaevich has taught in the Moscow Higher Technical School im. NE Bauman at the Faculty of aircraft armament. Simultaneously, he worked at SRI-2 Ministry of Aviation Industry of the USSR, which solved the problems of calculation of dispersion and processing the results of bench testing rockets. Later, Moiseev worked at the Computing Center of USSR head of the department of computational methods in hydrodynamics and simultaneously taught at the Moscow Physical-Technical Institute.
In 1955 he was appointed dean of the Faculty Aeromehanicheskogo MIPT. And after 10 years, organized in MIPT Department of Management and Applied Mathematics, and was its first dean. All this time, Nikita Nikolaevich continues to actively engage in scientific research. Academician Nikita N. Moiseev brought his calculations of nuclear winter. In 1983, the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan published a number of scenarios of a possible nuclear war, caused by a nuclear exchange with a capacity of thousands of megatons.
They advanced the hypothesis of “nuclear nights”, which will inevitably attack after grand fires and wrapping the world’s veil of soot and the “nuclear winter”, which comes as the planet’s surface would be inaccessible to sunlight and begin to cool rapidly. The staff of Moiseev in the Computing Center of the USSR possessed a system of models, sufficient for the numerical estimates, and computer system BESM-6. The Americans then were able to analyze the possible dynamics of atmospheric changes only for the first month after a nuclear exchange, and collective EC USSR was able to give the picture a year.
Made calculations fully confirmed the validity of the hypothesis C. Sagan. [1] These results have provided such an impression on the politicians that gave impetus to a process of nuclear disarmament. And Nikita Nikolaevich himself in the last years of his life engaged in the development of philosophical and methodological problems in the relationship of nature and society, emphasizing the idea of human responsibility for the fate of the planet. Nuclear winter Nuclear winter is a term that describes the climatic effects of nuclear war.
In the 1980’s, work conducted jointly by Western and Soviet scientists showed that for a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union the climatic consequences, and indirect effects of the collapse of society, would be so severe that the ensuing nuclear winter would produce famine for billions of people far from the target zones. There are several wrong impressions that people have about nuclear winter. One is that there was a flaw in the theory and that the large climatic effects were disproven.
Another is that the problem, even if it existed, has been solved by the end of the nuclear arms race. But these are both wrong. Furthermore, new nuclear states threaten global climate change even with arsenals that are much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. How Does Nuclear Winter Work? A nuclear explosion is like bringing a piece of the Sun to the Earth’s surface for a fraction of a second. Like a giant match, it causes cities and industrial areas to burn. Megacities have developed in India and Pakistan and other developing countries, providing tremendous amounts of fuel for potential fires.
The direct effects of the nuclear weapons, blast, radioactivity, fires, and extensive pollution, would kill millions of people, but only those near the targets. However, the fires would have another effect. The massive amounts of dark smoke from the fires would be lofted into the upper troposphere, 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) above the Earth’s surface, and then absorption of sunlight would further heat the smoke, lifting it into the stratosphere, a layer where the smoke would persist for years, with no rain to wash it out.
The climatic effects of smoke from fires started by nuclear war depend on the amount of smoke. Our new calculations show that for 50 nuclear weapons dropped on two countries, on the targets that would produce the maximum amount of smoke, about 5 megatons (Tg) of black smoke would be produced, accounting for the amount emitted from the fires and the amount immediately washed out in rain. As the smoke is lofted into the stratosphere, it would be transported around the world by the prevailing winds.
We also did calculations for two scenarios of war between the two superpowers who still maintain large nuclear arsenals, the United States and Russia. In one scenario, 50 Tg of black smoke would be produced and in another, 150 Tg of black smoke would be produced. How many nuclear weapons would be required to produce this much smoke? It depends on the targets, but there are enough weapons in the current arsenals to produce either amount. In fact, there are only so many targets. Once they are all hit by weapons, additional weapons would not produce much more smoke at all. 2] Even after the current nuclear weapons reduction treaty between these superpowers is played out in 2012, with each having about 2,000 weapons, 150 Tg of smoke could still be produced. Analogs Support the Theory Nuclear winter is a theory based on computer model calculations. Normally, scientists test theories by doing experiments, but we never want to do this experiment in the real world. Thus we look for analogs that can inform us of parts of the theory. And there are many such analogs that convince us that the theory is correct: Cities burning.
Unfortunately, we have several examples of cities burning, firestorms created by the intense release of energy, and smoke being pumped into the upper atmosphere. These include San Francisco as a result of the earthquake in 1906, and cities bombed in World War II, including Tokyo, Dresden, Hamburg, Darmstadt, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki. The seasonal cycle. In the winter, the climate is cooler, because the days are shorter and sunlight is less intense. Again, this helps us quantify the effects of reduction of solar radiation. The diurnal cycle. At night the Sun sets and it gets cold at the surface.
If the Sun did not rise tomorrow, we already have an intuitive feel for how much cooling would take place and how fast it would cool. Volcanic eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions, such as those of Tambora in 1815, Krakatau in 1883 and Pinatubo in 1991, provide several lessons. The resulting sulfate aerosol cloud in the stratosphere is transported around the world by winds, thus supporting the results from the animations above. The surface temperature plummets after each large eruption, in proportion to the thickness of the stratospheric cloud.
In fact 1816, following Tambora, is known as the “Year Without a Summer,” with global cooling and famine. Following the Pinatubo eruption, global precipitation, river flow, and soil moisture all reduced, since cooling the planet by blocking sunlight has a strong effect on reducing evaporation and weakening the hydrologic cycle. This is also what the nuclear winter simulations show. [3] Forest fires. Smoke from large forest fires sometimes is injected into the lower stratosphere. And the smoke is transported around the world, also producing cooling under the smoke.
Dust storms on Mars. Occasionally, dust storms start in one region of Mars, but the dust is heated by the Sun, lofted into the upper atmosphere, and transported around the planet to completely enshroud it in a dust blanket. This process takes a couple weeks, just like our computer simulations for the nuclear winter smoke. Extinction of the dinosaurs. 65,000,000 years ago an asteroid or comet smashed into the Earth in southern Mexico. The resulting dust cloud, mixed with smoke from fires, blocked out the Sun, killing the dinosaurs, and starting the age of mammals.
This Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) extinction may have been exacerbated by massive volcanism in India at the same time. This teaches us that large amounts of aerosols in Earth’s atmosphere have caused massive climate change and extinction of species. The difference with nuclear winter is that the K-T extinction could not have been prevented. Policy Implications The work on nuclear winter in the 1980’s, and the realization that both direct and indirect effects of nuclear war would be a global catastrophe, led to the end of arms race and the end of the Cold War.
In response to the comment “In the 1980s, you warned about the unprecedented dangers of nuclear weapons and took very daring steps to reverse the arms race,” in an interview in 2000, Mikhail Gorbachev said “Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation. “[4] Since the 1980’s, the number of nuclear weapons in the world has decreased to 1/3 of the peak number of more than 70,000.
The consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts are unexpectedly large, with the potential to become global catastrophes. The combination of nuclear proliferation, political instability, and urban demographics may constitute one of the greatest dangers to the stability of society since the dawn of humans. The current and projected American and Russian nuclear arsenals can still produce nuclear winter. [5] Only nuclear disarmament will prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe. Summary All in all, we need to say that the model of Nuclear Winter made by N. N.
Moiseev was extremily important for all people in the world. Especially, it was important for politicians who understood that they should stop arms race, otherwise the world can stop exist. According to the latest nuclear winter researches, which were published in 2007 and 2008, we can say several things about this topic. Now we know that even a minor nuclear war (such as between India and Pakistan or in the Middle East), with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. This is only 0. 3% of the explosive power of the current global arsenal. This same scenario would produce global ozone depletion, because the heating of the stratosphere would enhance the chemical reactions that destroy ozone. A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. The climatic effects of the smoke from burning cities and industrial areas would last for several years, much longer than we previously thought.
New climate model simulations, that have the capability of including the entire atmosphere and oceans, show that the smoke would be lofted by solar heating to the upper stratosphere, where it would remain for years. The only way to eliminate the possibility of this climatic catastrophe is to eliminate the nuclear weapons. If they exist, they can be used. The spread of nuclear weapons to new emerging states threatens not only the people of those countries, but the entire planet. Rapid reduction of the American and Russian nuclear arsenals will set an example for the rest of the world that nuclear weapons cannot be used and are not needed.
References 1. Aleksandrov, V. V. , and G. L. Stenchikov, 1983: On the modeling of the climatic consequences of the nuclear war, Proc. Applied Math, Computing Centre, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 21 pp. 2. Crutzen, P. J. , and J. W. Birks, 1982: The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon, Ambio, 11, 180 pages. 3. Harwell, M. A. and T. C. Hutchinson, Eds. , 1986: Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, SCOPE 28. Volume II, Ecological and Agricultural Effects, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 4. Mark A.
Harwell Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War Springer, 179 pages , November 1984, ISBN 0-387-96093-7 5. Mills, Michael J. , Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, 2008, “Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict,” PNAS, 244 pages, doi:10. 1073/pnas. 0710058105. 6. N. N. Moiseev, Man, nature and the future of civilization: “nuclear winter” and the problem of a “permissible threshold” Novosti Press Agency Pub. House, Moscow, 92 pages, January 1986. 7.
Robock, Alan, 2008: Time to bury a dangerous legacy: Part II: Climatic catastrophe would follow regional nuclear conflict. YaleGlobal Online. 8. Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, and Richard P. Turco, 2007a: Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts. Atm. Chem. Phys. , 7 , 2003-2012. 9. Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007b: Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences. J. Geophys. Res. , 112 , D13107, doi:10. 1029/2006JD008235. 10. Sagan, C. , and R.
Turco, 1990: A Path Where No Man Thought – Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race, New York, Random House, 499 pp. ISBN: 0394583078. 11. Toon, Owen B. , Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007a: Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism. Atm. Chem. Phys. , 7 , 1973-2002. 12. Turco, R. P. , Toon, A. B. , Ackerman, T. P. , Pollack, J. B. , Sagan, C. (TTAPS) (1990) “Climate and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter”, Science, volume 247, 209 pages, January. 3. Turco, R. P. , O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack, and C. Sagan, 1983: Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, Science, 222, 1283-1292. 14. Walt, S. M: (1998), “International Relations: One World, Many Theories”, Foreign Policy, n. 110, Spring 1998, 70 pages. 15. Mikhail Gorbachev explains what’s rotten in Russia http://www. salon. com/2000/09/07/gorbachev/ ———————– [1] N. N. Moiseev, Man, nature and the future of civilization: “nuclear winter” and the problem of a “permissible threshold” Novosti Press Agency Pub.
House, Moscow, 56-58 pp. [2] Crutzen, P. J. , and J. W. Birks, 1982: The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon, Ambio, 11, 114-125. [3] Mark A. Harwell Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War Springer, November 1984, pp. 95-97 [4] Mikhail Gorbachev explains what’s rotten in Russia http://www. salon. com/2000/09/07/gorbachev/ [5] Mills, Michael J. , Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, 2008, “Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict,” PNAS, pp. 118-127

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